I’ve seen a lot of posts on here as of late talking about GVT’s potential as a trading platform, and while that’s great and all, I’m here to tell you that’s not how this thing is going to play out in the long run. In the recent Medium article entitled “94,000 — Genesis Vision Token (GVT)” the author makes the case for a $94,000 GVT token by 2021. He made many good points, but there is one critical error he and most of the people in this community keep making. Day traders RARELY OUTPERFORM INVESTORS in the long run. The author based this argument on the assumption that, “a growth rate of 11.06% per week is sustainable in the future,” even saying it was, “VERY conservative.” Recently, I’ve have been seeing a bunch of posts and comments suggesting growth rates like this are reasonable, and I want to explain to everyone why it won’t happen. 1) Firstly, let’s address the results of the trader’s challenge. Yes, I understand what you’re thinking, “But the top five all had over 400% returns!” This is true, but if you took those same top five traders and had them repeat the challenge every week for the next year most would return to near the mean of the market. Even while monitoring the tournament I saw several traders go from top 5, 300% returns, to losses in less than 24 hours. For every trader that made ridiculous returns there were just as many losses, and you won’t be able to “pick the winners” because there will be different winners every period. It’s true that there will be some day traders that are able to outperform the market consistently, but after transaction costs and fees to manage, the best you could expect is a couple percent above market average. Here’s some evidence: http://technicalanalysis.org.uk/support-and-resistance/Curcio-etal1997.pdf (Found it extremely difficult to outperform foreign currency exchange markets) http://viking.som.yale.edu/will/research.papers/day-trading-international-3-15-00.pdf (Found that some traders were able to outperform market by roughly 20%, which is significant, but that’s likely a 1-1.5% increase in returns per year, before accounting for managing fees.) https://www.cfapubs.org/doi/sum/10.2469/faj.v59.n6.2578 (this study gives hope, finds it possible to day trade profitably, but again I question what the results would’ve been over a longer time frame) 2) Here’s what I will concede to those of you hoping for magical 11% returns per week (which by the way would turn 5k into over a million in less than a year). The cryptocurrency market is wild right now, and if 2018 picks back up and looks anything like 2017, you could expect massive returns, possibly even in the 1000s %. Additionally, wall street hasn’t entered the game yet, so for now, there is still room to take advantage of market irrationality. But trust me, when million-dollar algorithms (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2u007Msq1qo) are generating trades across the block from Coinbase or Binance every few milliseconds, there will be little room for day traders in the space. So, it isn’t that you can’t make money or even outperform the market, but it just won’t be as crazy and advantageous as you think. 3) This brings me to point three; the real value of GVT. Genesis Vision will do two things extremely well, it gives access to exposure from a wide variety of markets from one platform (cryptos, forex, Nasdaq, etc.), and it ensures trust. I personally am most excited about the wide access to markets through knowledgeable managers. I know nothing about technology stocks, but if I want exposure in that market, I can find a manager experienced in that area who is up to date on the latest news. The same goes for crypto. I found out about NANO at around a $1.50 and did well because of it, but my dad (who knows little about crypto and mostly owns the Coinbase coins) never had a chance. Now, he will be able to tie his capital to someone deeply involved in daily news and analysis in the crypto world, which as I’m sure many of us know, can feel like a full-time job. So, when fundamentals change, or new technology arrives on the scene, he isn’t late to the party. Then there is the aspect of trust. Users can verify that traders are handling their money correctly and legitimately generating the returns they are claiming. This could be huge in private equity markets if Genesis Vision really takes hold. Sorry for the long post, but I just wanted to clear up a lot of the misconceptions flying around this sub. Sure there will be a place for day trading on GVT, but its real breakthroughs are easy access to markets through knowledgeable managers and trust. Also, I'm interested to hear your arguments because I am by no means an expert and I'm sure people will have a lot of stuff to disagree with me on.
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